Faktor - Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Kegiatan Ekspor Indonesia ke Kawasan ASEAN: Pendekatan Model Gravitasi Data Panel 2016-2021

Kartika, Dyah Ekayani (2022) Faktor - Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Kegiatan Ekspor Indonesia ke Kawasan ASEAN: Pendekatan Model Gravitasi Data Panel 2016-2021. Skripsi thesis, Universitas Islam Negeri (UIN) Prof. KH. Saifuddin Zuhri.

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Abstract

The phenomenon of globalization in the world's economy causes changes in the pattern of trade in the world. Trade is an important thing done by every country because in its development it can be a driver of economic growth. Trade is carried out for profit by selling goods and services so as to improve the welfare of the community. Profits in trade do not only come from within their own country, but also through international trade. International trade has the basic idea of gains from trade, namely, if a country sells goods and services to other countries, the benefits or profits will almost certainly be obtained by both parties. International trade is carried out by a country with other countries with the aim of obtaining profits on the basis of trust. International trade is carried out through import-export activities. International trade has a large influence on the Indonesian economy. An important effect of international trade is the increase in sources of income for the country through an increase in the volume and value of exports and the costs imposed on imported goods. Exports have an important role in the process of economic growth of a country. The increase in export volume will increase foreign exchange reserves, thereby affecting economic growth. According to Tambunan (2011), the factors that influence Indonesia's export activities, namely GDP per capita, total exports, total imports, Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), inflation rate, and distance, the sample used comes from existing data. The purpose of this study is to determine whether the GDP per capita, total exports, total imports, Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), inflation rate, and distance can affect the value of Indonesia's exports to ASEAN member countries in the 2016-2021 period. This study uses a gravity model with the estimation model used is the Random Effect Model, and does not use the Fixed Effect Mode (FEM). The Fixed Effect method approach in this study was not used because of the geographical distance variable. The geographical distance in this study is the distance between the capital city of Indonesia and the distance between the capitals of each ASEAN country which has a time invariant nature. Due to the time invariant nature of the geographical distance variable, the fixed effect approach is not appropriate. This study aims to analyze the effect of several macro variables, namely GDP Per Capita, Total Exports, Total Imports, Real Effective Exchange Rate, Inflation Rate, and Distance. The results showed that GDP Per Capita, Total Exports, Total Imports, Distance were significant and positive for Indonesian trade, while the Real Effective Exchange Rate and Inflation Rate variables were significant and negative on Indonesian trade.

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